.01.21 — Global Catastrophes and Trends, Vaclav Smil

What it is?

An extensively supported analysis of threats to the collective well-being of humanity, ranging from the imminent (disruptions to the carbon, nitrogen, and water cycles) to the unlikely (collisions with space debris, volcanic mega-eruptions). Smil is careful to remind the reader that he offers not specific forecasts or hypothetical future scenarios, but rather an exploration of trends or events that could affect the world during the next 50 years. His observations are grounded in extensive research (36 pages of references!), and rely heavily on long range historical records instead of the projection models favored by many contemporaries. Divided relatively equally between coverage of geopolitical trends and environmental developments, with a particular focus on energy usage, Smil’s work is a highly informative cross-disciplinary primer on global changes that may shape the next 50 years.

My thoughts

Valclav Smil is an author I’ve been meaning to explore for years, with his books seeming to pop up again and again on the recommendation lists of well read commentators. Bill Gates in particular seems to be a fan, and as befitting his recommendation this book is grounded in tangible data and Smil’s seemingly unbiased parsing of it. Published in July 2008, this work is somewhat dated today, but it is eerie how prescient some of the topics he identified as critical were in light of 2020’s challenges (Fauci citations and mentions of Tamiflu shortages to name two specifics). His direct writing style and expansive vocabulary make the book a surprisingly quick and pleasurable read, and I am left feeling as if I am missing out having not read his other works.